EmpireCalc

Phase 1 · Core Sovereign Layer

Angel Deal Velocity Calculator

That pre-seed check looks tiny against a billion-dollar exit — until dilution does its work. Model the full cascade from SAFE to exit, and see if it even beats an index fund.

Your deal

The cascade re-solves on every tick.

$25000

The size of your angel check.

$8000000

The SAFE's valuation cap.

20%

Discount to the conversion round price.

3 rounds

Raises between now and exit.

22%

How much each round dilutes you.

$200000000

Acquisition / IPO valuation.

7 yr

For the index-fund comparison.

Return multiple
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On your original check, at exit.
Exit payout
—
Entry ownership
—
Ownership at exit
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Exit needed to beat index
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Under the hood

The math, fully exposed

From SAFE conversion through every dilutive round to exit (index hurdle assumes 10%/yr):

Effective cap = valuation cap × (1 − discount)
Entry ownership = your check ÷ effective cap
Ownership at exit = entry ownership × (1 − dilution)rounds
Exit payout = ownership at exit × exit valuation
Multiple = payout ÷ check  ·  index hurdle = (1.10)years
  • The cap sets your floor: on a post-money SAFE your entry ownership is your check over the cap (lowered further by the discount). A high cap quietly shrinks your stake before the company does anything.
  • Dilution compounds: each round multiplies your ownership by (1 − dilution), so three or four rounds can roughly halve your slice by exit.
  • Beat the market, after risk: the index hurdle is the bar to clear just to justify the illiquidity — and that ignores the high odds of a total loss, which is why winners must be large.

Your directives

What to do next, based on your numbers

Adjust the sliders to generate tailored recommendations.

Answers

Frequently asked questions

How does a SAFE convert — cap or discount?
A SAFE turns your investment into equity at the next priced round, using whichever term is better for you: the valuation cap (you convert as if the company were worth no more than the cap) or the discount (you pay a set percentage less than the round price). On a post-money cap, your ownership is simply your check ÷ the cap, improved by any discount. Early angels are usually protected mostly by the cap.
How does dilution affect an angel's return?
Every funding round after yours issues new shares, shrinking your percentage. Three rounds that each dilute existing holders by ~20% cut your stake to roughly half before you ever see an exit. Your share count may not change, but your slice does — which is why a great-sounding entry ownership can become a modest payout by the time the company sells.
What return should I actually expect from angel investing?
Angel returns follow a brutal power law: most investments return zero or near-zero, and a tiny number of huge winners carry the entire portfolio. A single deal "working" isn't the plan — you need enough shots that one big multiple covers the many that fail. Size each check assuming it could go to zero.
How do I beat just buying an index fund?
Your angel check has to clear the opportunity cost of the market. If an index would turn your money into ~2× over the holding period, your startup stake must beat that after dilution — and compensate for the illiquidity and risk of total loss. This tool shows your projected multiple against that index hurdle and the exit size you'd need to clear it.